Blogging in Berkeley. Notes on news, politics, law, and technology in the US and China. [This blog is inactive. I am now staying busy and having a great time at UVA Law.]
Friday, October 01, 2004
 

Market reaction to the debates...

I recently started trading in the Frontline fantasy market:
FRONTLINE: presidential market: home PBS
Bush is up 2.12 there today.
I have 3 shares of Bush and I am shorting 2 shares of Kerry. I'm looking for bargains rather than making partisan bets, though. I own 2 shares of Kerry winning Pennsylvania and I a try to get an order filled for 4 shares of Kerry in Minnesota. I don't necessarily think he will win those states, but I think that the shares are way under-valued as compared to his actual chances.

TradeSports has Bush -2.5 today.

Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market Price Graph shows both candidates up.
 
Comments:
Try as I might. I don't understand shorting.
 
From wikipedia.com:
In finance, short selling is selling something that one does not own. Typically, this refers to stock shares, currencies or commodities.

The hope is that the price falls and it is possible to buy back whatever was sold at a lower price to make a profit. This is termed 'covering your position'.
 
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