Blogging in Berkeley. Notes on news, politics, law, and technology in the US and China. [This blog is inactive. I am now staying busy and having a great time at UVA Law.]
Saturday, October 30, 2004

Solid analysis from Dan Rather below.
I think Bush will get the popular vote, now it is a matter of whether he can nail down all the electoral votes that he needs. It would be ironic if there was a reversal of the 2000 election and Bush won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote.

Dan Rather handicaps the race:

Should Bush lose this time in Ohio and New Hampshire, states he won last time, he would be at 254 — providing he wins every other state he won in 2000. That would push him down to 254. But if he then carried Wisconsin and Iowa (both of which went for Gore in 2000), he would pick up 17 electoral votes, pushing the president back up to a winning 271.

It is, of course, only one of many possible scenarios in which Bush could win. But if one puts one's nose to the wind and sniffs, it may be as good a guess as any. And better than most.

So, think of election night this way: First, concentrate on the Big Three: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Then watch the Middle Three: Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. After that, the Little Three: Arkansas, New Mexico and Hawaii
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