Blogging in Berkeley. Notes on news, politics, law, and technology in the US and China. [This blog is inactive. I am now staying busy and having a great time at UVA Law.]
Monday, November 01, 2004
 

Ted's election eve analysis
Possible scenarios based on the five states that I think are really in play.

The total electoral count for the other 45 states that I believe are good bets for either Bush or Kerry:
Bush 227
Kerry 242
As for "battleground" states that means Kerry winning New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Hawaii.
Bush will win Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Missouri.

That leaves Ohio(20), Florida(27), Wisconsin(10), Iowa(7), New Mexico(5).
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election.

Scenarios for a Bush win:
1- Bush takes Ohio and Florida as he did in 2000 - 274+ electoral votes
2- Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa - 271+ electoral votes

Here are the possible ties:
Bush loses Florida but wins in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.
269 - 269
or
Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico; Kerry takes Ohio and Iowa
269 - 269

The decision would then go to the newly elected House of Representatives and Bush would be re-elected by a Republican majority of state delegations.

Here is the bottom line:
If my predictions are correct on the 45 states that I exclude from these scenarios then to win re-election outright on November 2nd, President Bush cannot lose Florida. Bush could lose Ohio but would have to win in Wisconsin and Iowa. The two tie scenarios would also allow for a Bush win but not on electoral votes. I see one path to re-election without Florida, and two paths to re-election for President Bush without Ohio. If Bush loses both Ohio and Florida then John Kerry will be the next President of the United States.

Caveat:
Bush seems stronger in those swing states that I am predicting he will win than Kerry seems in the swing states that I think will go in to his win column. For example, Hawaii's 4 electoral votes could make a difference if they went to Bush, and he is ahead in the most recent (though out of date) polls.

The big mystery is voter turn out. With record high voter registration this election the "get out the vote" effort that is mounted in these key states may prove to be the deciding factor.

My final prediction:
Ohio - Bush
Florida - Bush
Wisconsin - Kerry
Iowa - Bush
New Mexico - Kerry

Bush 281
Kerry 257

I predict Bush will win re-election on Tuesday, November 2nd.

"I'm Theodore Hasse, and I approved this message."
 
Comments:
And to think I studied this as a "science"...
I have only one prediction, and that is Bush will take Texas. I know I'm really going out on a limb, but this morning I saw a sign that read: "Bush Rules--Kerry Drools". I believe that pretty much sums up the sentiment here.
 
Kerry 298
Bush 240

Tough to battle the DNC, CBS, ABC, NBC, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, UN, AFL-CIO, George Soros and his band of merry men, etc, etc, etc. W is a good man and a great leader, but he can't overcome this onslaught.

-Rob
 
Janell-
How favorable has the coverage been for Bush in Austin? I didn't see any coverage of the rally in Dallas last night anywhere, did it get any attention there? I bet that must have been some pep rally...

Rob-
Have you been seeing and hearing a lot of campaign ads? In CA there has been nothing on the radio or TV, and I have heard alot about politcal ad burnout in the battleground areas. Also, have you seen any campaign ads online? It is possible for advertisers online to target their ads based on region and even locality; but I don't know if they are doing it and there are of course none showing up when I surf the web since California has been uncontested this election.
 
Ted:

Illinois was never in play for the GOP, but you gotta' remember that I live in the St. Louis market area and Missouri was a swing state (although Bush won it easily and it was never really close in the polls) and there was a race for Governor, which was won by (R)Matt Blunt. So, we had tons of ads for the past few months.
 
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