Ted's election eve analysis
Possible scenarios based on the five states that I think are really in play.

The total electoral count for the other 45 states that I believe are good bets for either Bush or Kerry:
Bush 227
Kerry 242
As for "battleground" states that means Kerry winning New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Hawaii.
Bush will win Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Missouri.

That leaves Ohio(20), Florida(27), Wisconsin(10), Iowa(7), New Mexico(5).
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election.

Scenarios for a Bush win:
1- Bush takes Ohio and Florida as he did in 2000 - 274+ electoral votes
2- Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa - 271+ electoral votes

Here are the possible ties:
Bush loses Florida but wins in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.
269 - 269
or
Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico; Kerry takes Ohio and Iowa
269 - 269

The decision would then go to the newly elected House of Representatives and Bush would be re-elected by a Republican majority of state delegations.

Here is the bottom line:
If my predictions are correct on the 45 states that I exclude from these scenarios then to win re-election outright on November 2nd, President Bush cannot lose Florida. Bush could lose Ohio but would have to win in Wisconsin and Iowa. The two tie scenarios would also allow for a Bush win but not on electoral votes. I see one path to re-election without Florida, and two paths to re-election for President Bush without Ohio. If Bush loses both Ohio and Florida then John Kerry will be the next President of the United States.

Caveat:
Bush seems stronger in those swing states that I am predicting he will win than Kerry seems in the swing states that I think will go in to his win column. For example, Hawaii's 4 electoral votes could make a difference if they went to Bush, and he is ahead in the most recent (though out of date) polls.

The big mystery is voter turn out. With record high voter registration this election the "get out the vote" effort that is mounted in these key states may prove to be the deciding factor.

My final prediction:
Ohio - Bush
Florida - Bush
Wisconsin - Kerry
Iowa - Bush
New Mexico - Kerry

Bush 281
Kerry 257

I predict Bush will win re-election on Tuesday, November 2nd.

"I'm Theodore Hasse, and I approved this message."
  ¶ 11/01/2004 08:39:00 PM